Silver Book reference

Health Spending Projections Through 2016: Modest changes obscure Part D’s impact

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    • The decade-long projection detailed here expects that nearly $0.20 of every $1.00 spent will be devoted to health by 2016.  
    • Nursing home spending growth is expected to remain fairly steady from 2007 through 2010 averaging around 5.0% per year, before a gradual acceleration over the latter half of the projection…  
    • Private health insurance benefit spending is predicted to slow from a peak of 9.5% in 2001 to 4.7% in 2006, partially because of Medicare Part D.  
    • From 2008 to 2016, combined state and federal Medicaid spending is projected to grow an average of 8.1% per year and to represent 16.4% of national health expenditures by 2016.  
    • Spending for two Medicaid services is expected to accelerate in 2006: home health care (from 14% in 2005 to 19.8% in 2006), and other personal health care (from 8.1% in…  
    • In 2007, growth in national health spending is projected to decelerate slightly to 6.6%, while spending growth among private payers and Medicaid accelerates.  
    • Growth in national health spending is projected to be 0.4% higher than the GDP. Health spending is expected to grow an average of 2.1% faster per year than GDP, resulting…  
    • This year’s national health spending projection anticipates an average annual growth of 6.9% from 2006 to 2016.  
    • National health spending growth is projected to slow from 6.9% in 2005 to 6.8% in 2006, which marks the 4th consecutive year of a slowing trend.  
    • From 2008 to 2016, Medicare growth is expected to average 7.6% per year, and represent 20.9% of total national health care expenditures towards the end of the projection period.  
    • Total spending on health care is projected to reach $4.1 trillion by 2016.  
    • Total health care spending in 2006 is projected to be $2.1 trillion.  
    • The health share of the GDP is expected to hold steady in 2006 before it resumes a historical upward trend, reaching 19.6% of GDP by 2016.