Silver Book Fact
Absent policy change, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that Medicare spending will grow at an average of 7% each year from 2010 to 2018, rising to $879 billion annually and 4% of GDP. The rate of growth of Medicare spending over the long term is predicted to exceed the rate of growth in federal revenues and the overall economy.
Thorpe K, Ogden L, Galactionova K. Chronic Conditions Account for Rise in Medicare Spending From 1987 to 2006. Health Aff. 2010; 29(4). http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.2009.0474v1